Top of Mind Thursday – November 7, 2024: What Just Happened?

Two days ago, former President Donald Trump was re-elected to a second term.Leverage2Market Logo

The race went down to the wire, and there was no clear projection as to who would win, but the margin of Trump’s victory was unexpected in many circles.

What can we take away from this?

  • Polls are an artifact of an earlier time. They tell us nothing, probably because the people who make a difference aren’t talking to pollsters. Pundits are just as bad—they pontificate for their point of view while adding more noise than light.
  • Consistent messaging is key. Trump chose a few key messages and repeated them endlessly for months. Harris moved from message to message, often changing her message on an issue based on the audience of the day.
  • If you say something enough times, people believe it’s true. The woman who first claimed a Haitian ate her pet in Ohio found her cat hiding in the garage, but that didn’t stop the Trump team from repeating the claim, again and again—enough times that people started believing it.
  • Nothing is as motivating as fear. Trump succeeded in convincing voters that the border issue was out of control and it was the fault of the Biden/Harris administration. Fear was central to Trump’s strategy and it worked.
  • Personal character is no longer relevant to choosing a candidate. Trump has been convicted of multiple fraud counts, is a serial adulterer, and treats women and people he doesn’t like very poorly. Yet many voters chose to focus on what they liked about his policies, rather than his character.
  • It’s the economy, stupid. Or, more accurately, it’s MY PERCEPTION of the economy that matters. Inflation is down, as are gas prices. Job growth is up. But for many Americans, paying the rent and buying groceries is a challenge, and that’s what motivated them.
  • Social media algorithms perpetuate your point of view. Commenting pro or con on a candidate just feeds you more posts with views similar to your own. It’s not difficult to see how a constant diet of this makes it easy to believe you’re in the majority–regardless of whether or not that’s true.

Here’s the bottom line: If you don’t like what happened Tuesday, figure out what went wrong and come up with a better strategy next time. Repeating what didn’t work won’t get different results.

I hear too many Democrats berating themselves for not doing more of what didn’t work on Tuesday. The country would be better served with a fresh approach that takes into account what happened and learns from Tuesday’s result.

There’s a mid-term election in two years. Let’s hope we’re not asking the same questions after that one.


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